From 1994 to 2022, no state changed its mind in favor of [assault weapons bans]. But that equilibrium — seven states with AWBs and 43 without — no longer holds. In addition to the states above, Virginia and New Mexico look to be on their way to bans of their own in 2026.
It’s a mirror image of the concealed carry revolution. That also happened state by state, and most of the country was shall-issue before most people even knew that was a trend. The same could happen with AWBs. What will decide that is whether guns continue to build cultural momentum and whether the courts get involved.
On that latter point, a New Mexico ban might have a silver lining. It’s in jurisdiction of the Tenth Circuit Court of Appeals. Unlike the circuit courts covering, say, California or New York or Massachusetts, the Tenth Circuit might strike down an AWB. That could generate a circuit split, since other circuit courts to look at the issue have upheld AWBs. And a circuit split makes it likelier for the Supreme Court to accept an AWB case. Justice Kavanaugh has already basically announced that the Court is looking to take such a case in the next 1-2 years.
— Open Source Defense in Gun control is quietly having a moment
Yeah, I wouldn’t hold my breath.
SCOTUS has had plenty of opportunities to kill AWBs refused.
This nonsense isn’t going to go away. States will implement them. Some courts will strike them. Others will uphold them. Years, decades will pass and us people will just have to put up with it. SCOTUS won’t touch it until there’s a dem majority on the bench.
Unfortunately we don’t have an army of fat lesbians and mentally ill drug addicts to eagerly die in the street for the cause.
Concur. If “silver lining” means “maybe in 10-15 years your rights MIGHT be restored by SCOTUS”, then they ain’t rights.
I retired at the end of 2009. Before then the Fourth Circuit (Maryland, the Virginias, and the Carolinas) was reliably conservative. But the Dems in Congress, surrounded by the circuit, were watching. What’s your read on a Fourth Circuit ruling if Virginia attempts an assault weapons ban?
Virginia is setting things up so no matter what a gun owner does they are in violation of law – even if complying with the law. Its full of traps to turn gun owners into felons and even imprison them no matter what they do, complying with the law or not complying with the law it does not matter, if the laws pass you automatically, literally, become a felon.
For example; In all these anti-gun laws Virginia wants to pass there is one section that says FFLs can buy a gun from another FFL or law enforcement but can’t from individuals not an FFL or law enforcement. However, in another section an individual has the option of ‘surrendering’ a firearm on the banned list by selling it to an FFL. Then in another section its a crime for an individual to try to sell a banned firearm. See the trap? An FFL cant buy it from the person, and the person if they try to comply with the law and surrender to an ‘FFL’ by trying to sell it to an FFL like the law says they can then they become a felon.
Another example; there is a section that allows cities to have gun ‘buy backs’ for people to surrender firearms. But in another section it makes it a crime (misdemeanor) for an individual to transport or participate to surrender a gun at a gun ‘buy back’ held by a city.
There are literally over 200 hundred traps like this hidden in these anti-gun laws Virginia wants to pass. Basically, if they pass, 100% of all gun owners in the state will literally become felons. If you try to obey the law you are a felon, if you hang onto the banned gun you are a felon. If you try to simply divest your self of any gun banned or not by selling it to an FFL or at a buyback or to another individual, you become a criminal. If you hang onto the gun and its legal to have, you also become a felon because there are even more traps hidden in these laws.
Left wing trans violence – again: Rhode Island Hockey Game Shooter Identified as ‘Transgender’. [the trans killers name is Robert Dorgan, went by the name ‘Roberta Esposito’]
“The utterly despicable and mentally ill shooter who murdered his wife and children during a mass shooting event in Rhode Island identified as transgender.
…
‘Greg Price
@greg_price11
BREAKING: The suspect in the Rhode Island shooting has indeed been confirmed as a man who went through gender reassignment surgery– which his ex-wife cited in their divorce papers along with ‘narcissistic+personality disorder traits.’
His ex-Father in Law was also arrested a few years ago for threatening to have him murdered by an Asian street gang for not moving out of their house, telling him ‘no goddamn tranny is going to stay here.
…
🚨: BREAKING: The daughter of the Rhode Island ice rink shooter says her father was “very sick” He was reportedly dressed in women’s clothing when the shooting took place.
Transgenderism is a sickness that is spreading rapidly.
…
Dorgan was apparently going by the name of Roberta Esposito. Dorgan killed himself after murdering two people and injuring three more, according to the latest reports.
…”
ht* tps://pjmedia.com/catherinesalgado/2026/02/16/breaking-hockey-game-shooter-identified-as-transgender-n4949590
“There’s no way to rule innocent men….when there aren’t enough criminals one makes them…. But just pass the kind of laws that can neither be observed nor enforced or objectively interpreted – and you create a nation of law-breakers – and then you cash in on guilt.”
– – Ayn Rand