Trump’s backing hinges on how much personal support he thinks he’ll get in return. Since Cornyn is already in, and a powerful senator, I think Trump would pick him. I wish Trump would stay out of the primary.

Yup, Cornyn’s running: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4684779-cornyn-will-seek-reelection-to-senate-in-2026-god-willing/

On paper, this could be a reprise of the Ted Cruz / David Dewhurst 2012 race, where the populist conservative Cruz overcame a huge fundraising advantage and near 100% GOPe backing for then-Tx. Lt. Gov. David Dewshurst, and crushed him by 14 points.

While Paxton has done a lot of good things as AG (mostly by setting an agenda and hiring very good people at the Tx AG’s / SG’s office (and then letting them operate)), don’t fall too much in love with him. Cruz was (and is) a supremely capable lawyer (he was the Texas Solicitor General and actually argued very high profile cases); Paxton is not. Paxton also has no small number of skeletons in his closet (his reputation at a lawyer before he became AG was sketchy at best); Cornyn will not shy from exposing them.

I think a lot of this may boil down to who PDT supports. Cornyn now knows he cannot do anything but dance to the Trump tune, so he’s unlikely to give PDT an excuse to undercut him. We’ll just have to see whether he collects enough chits from the administration to avoid Trump backing Paxton.