LifeSavor,

There is another plausible explanation. Something like 40 years ago, people would purchase a few firearms over their lifetimes, along the lines of purchasing a pump-action shotgun or a rimfire rifle, a bolt-action “deer rifle”, and maybe a revolver. Then, starting around 2010, increasing interest, new product innovations, and political concerns led to those firearm owners deciding to purchase several more firearms. Thus there was a significant buying bubble–mostly due to existing firearm owners adding several additional firearms to their collections–from about 2010 to maybe 2019. Next came the COVID problems, St. George Floyd riots, and defund the police movement which inspired a LOT of people who never owned any firearms to dive-in and purchase their first firearm. That extended the previous buying bubble. And that brings us to 2024. At this point, virtually all homes who already owned several firearms are no longer buying additional firearms. And all of those people who historically never owned firearms decided to finally jump on board and are content with a single firearm. That means anyone who does not already have at least one firearm in their home are probably never going to purchase any firearms. All of that would produce a slow-down in firearm sales in 2024.

To summarize, decades ago households with firearms only purchased two or three firearms throughout their lifetime which meant modest annual sales. Starting roughly around 2010, households with firearms starting buying several more which caused a surge in sales for the next several years. Then events inspired people in homes who did not have firearms to finally take the plunge and buy a single firearm which extended the sales surge from 2010. Last but not least, pretty much everyone already has what they want (whether that is a single home-protection firearm or a stash of several firearms) so firearm sales are starting to drop compared to the sales between 2010 and 2023.

The numbers here are based on sales of new guns, it doesn’t account for sales of used guns which people are buying in increasing numbers which are in the overall numbers of actual gun sales NSSF tracks. So that could be the ‘difference’ you point out.

So gun sales are going down at a time when more folk are buying guns.

Being married, I am used to living in a world of mutually exclusive truths. I would not have it any othe way